Few spots remain for those with big dreams

Just a few days ago we lamented the futility of preseason prognostications. So, here goes an exercise in futility.

As reported ad nauseum, mostly on pages like this one, the Giants’ 2016 roster appears to be 88 percent locked – jump that figure to 92 percent if you think Kelby Tomlinson belongs on such a list. The remaining spots seem destined for another reliever and a fifth outfielder, so a lot of guys we’ll see down in Scottsdale will be heading for other destinations once the big team heads back to the Bay.

Thee are the decisions that make GMs crazy.

When talent is eventually dispersed -- whether it be through the system, to other teams, or to your local Safeway – it’s worth taking a crack at predicting which farmhands might be worth watching.

That requires some assumptions: The Giants will carry five outfielders, they’ll stick with a five-man rotation (sorry, Mr. MySpace), they’ll abandon this ridiculous practice of carrying 13 pitchers and limit themselves to seven arms in the pen, they’ll only carry two catchers, and the starting infield will be augmented by one utility guy.

Assuming our previous predictions of Kyle Blanks as the fifth outfielder/reserve 1B/ bat off the bench (think a late-2014 Michael Morse) and Tomlinson in a utility role, that leaves a single roster spot to be won. It could be a pitcher, which we hope it isn’t unless it’s Tim Lincecum. Better to have some flexibility with a guy who plays multiple positions and provide some pop off the bench.

With GM Bobby Evans telling media the shopping is likely done, let’s spend today looking at the position players now in uniform

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Christian Arroyo

Baseball America puts just one position player among the Giants’ top 10 prospects, Single-A shortstop Christian Arroyo. 

He’s just 20 but has three years of pro ball under his belt, spending last year at High-A San Jose where he hit .304.

It’s often said it takes about 1,000 ABs before you can really evaluate a hitter. Arroyo is just six bits short of that, and the numbers speak for themselves. He draws walks, strikes out too much and doesn’t hit for power....yet.

The Giants took him 25^th overall in 2013 so he’s one to watch, but he has the misfortune of being a middle infielder. Shortstop Brandon Crawford just inked a six-year deal and second baseman Joe Panik is both cheap and an all-star. Arroyo seems blocked for the near future. Add Tomlinson, who sparkled in relief of Panik a year ago, and Arroyo gets caught in traffic. He probably starts 2016 as a Flying Squirrel. A position change is always possible, but it’s more likely at one of those four won’t be a Giant by 2018. Hint: it won't be Crawford or Panik departing.

Lucius Fox

Contrary to popular belief, the Giants did not sign Morgan Freeman’s Dark Knight character. Their Lucius Fox is a 17-year-old Bahamian shortstop who appeared to be headed for LA until his wise father steered him to San Francisco in a Gandalf-meets-Yoda stroke of wisdom.

Like Arroyo, the Giants have a substantial commitment to Fox, shelling out $6.5 million plus penalties ($4 million up front and a $300,000 per international player cap for two years). Also like Arroyo, he’s a middle infielder. And subject to the same gridlock.

Baseball America rates him a solid B with a chance to develop. He’s a projected lead-off hitter with occasional gap power who swings from both sides of the plate. He’s also prone to mechanics-caused inconsistencies. MLB.com called him a five-tool player and the best overall athlete in his class.

Jarrett Parker

If Fox’s bat comes along as hoped, that athleticism could prompt a move to the outfield. As the baby of the group he has time to grow accustomed to the switch well before he’s needed.  Pencil him into an A-ball lineup this year.

It’s more likely that a major league number will go to one of two guys who’ve been there before. With Blanks serving not only as an outfielder but occasional back-up at First Base, why not another guy just like that? If San Francisco goes that route, Jarret Parker and Mac Williamson would be the frontrunners.

Baseball America puts Parker in the Giants top 10. Okay, he’s at number 9. Fans were enamored with this power last year and horrified at outfield play that at times resembled that of an arthritic water buffalo; think Aubrey Huff meets Greg Luzinski. He can go on home run binges, he slammed six in limited action, but he can also strike out more than the high school nerd who forgot to ditch the retainer and pocket protector before the senior prom.

Parker has lefty power, 29 home runs between Sacramento and San Francisco, but gets a lot of mixed reviews. Some think he could be an everyday guy, some a  decent  200-AB  corner outfielder, and others think what we saw in 2015 was as good as it’s going to get and opine he will spend a lot of time riding the rails of the Capitol Corridor as the Giants needs demand.

Although not ranked in the top 10, Williamson sometimes seemed to outperform Parker during his 2015 call-up. Parker had the better stats (17HR vs 5, .347 BA vs. .219) but he struck out eight times compared to Parker’s 17 and his defense didn’t frighten small children. 

The Giants could find a use for either, but both might be better served with another year honing their in AAA.  That could be a case of good news / bad news.

Williamson is 26, Parker is 27. Each should be entering his prime. If either performs well in Sacramento he can be expected to get an extended look with the big club. If he doesn’t his destination could range from TBA to DFA.

Trevor Brown

Falling onto that same category is Ryan Lollis. At age 28, this is probably his make-or-break season. A late-pick by Pittsburgh back on ’05, he’s been in the Giants’ farm system since 2009 and had made every stop. In almost 2,700 minor league at-bats he holds a .292 career average but has shown little power for a corner outfielder and an average glove. He did appear in five games for the 2015 Giants but got just 13 plate appearances, notching two singles and a walk. He looks exactly like the guy stored in the “break glass in case of fire” box.

Not likely, but no less intriguing, is 24-year-old Trevor Brown. Would the Giants carry a third catcher? He equated himself well in limited action last year (9-for 39, 3 doubles, 9 RBI) and would give the Giants roster flexibility. Teams are reticent to use that second catcher precisely because they don’t have a third. And once the back-up is in the game, he plays no matter what.

We like Andrew Susac and he’s clearly the favorite to spell Buster Posey. He also may be their most valuable trading chip. It would be nice to have a guy you trust ready to step in, and Brown could be that guy. Having him with the big club as opposed to AAA could rob him of reps, but the days Posey sits or plays First Base become much less dramatic. Posey isn’t forced back behind the plate if circumstances dictate a change. Posey can stay put or be held for that perfect moment coming off the bench, giving another weapon to a manager who knows how to use them.

All this  is predicated on the Giants making no late moves. But they won’t be the only team making cuts as camp winds down. There’s always a Tyler Colvin or Ryan Theriot lurking, and sometimes that move pays off.

Ask Theriot. I'm sure he'll be happy to show you his ring.