How Freak-ish Should 2016 Be?

Beat writer John Shea pegs the Giants as a “dark horse” among potential suitors for Tim Lincecum. Really? Black Caviar, Ruffian, Seattle Slew; those are dark horses. Tim Lincecum is an enigma, and the chances he remains with the Giants are equally unclear.

Shea's fine article from the San Francisco Chronicle reports the two-time Cy Young Award winnerlans a February showcase in an attempt to prove he’s not about to throw a shoe. Offseason hip surgery promises to return him to his former glory, or so his handlers would have teams believe. He vows to pitch somewhere in 2016. Should it be with the Giants?

The Giants made him the 10^th pick overall in 2006, and by May 2007 he was in the big leagues to stay. He was a combination of Steve Nebraska and a beat poet, adding a funky one-of-a kind delivery and hair stolen from a Shih Tzu. He liked to get a little buzz on, and was willing to play mobile DJ for his video game self (“and we don’t listen to that!’). 

He was made for San Francisco.

Lincecum won the Cy Young in 2008 and 2009, and was part of three World Series wins – although his contribution in 2014 was a token postseason appearance. He graced magazine covers, spreading the gospel of Giants baseball to a wider audience that often discounts, or outright ignores, anything east of Chicago or St. Louis.

Such is the making of a cult hero.

The Giants were knee deep in the hoopla (and we just ticked off Grace Slick) yet the Giants had one World Series appearance and no rings during the Barry Bonds era. The groundwork for a dynasty was laid with the arrival of The Freak. In return he was handsomely compensated: his total salary for nine seasons is just short of $100 million, and the 2010 and 2012 titles don’t happen without him.

   

 Downside, he hasn’t had more than 20 quality starts in a season since 2011 and last year injuries and ineffectiveness limited him to just five. He tossed a pair of no-hitters (blanking San Diego does count) and his career WHIP is a still-respectable 1.27. He's also had four straight years above that level.  The returns aren’t what they used to be. So the question everyone is asking: should the Giants make an effort to re-sign him?

That’s complicated. Madison Bumgarner is now the unquestioned ace of the staff. Giants brass shelled out big bucks to bring in Johnny Cueto and Jeff Samardzija, while Matt Cain and Jake Peavy are under contract. The rotation would appear to be locked, and Lincecum’s reps have made it clear he wants to start.

The Giants also find themselves pushing the luxury tax threshold, and there’s been no indication from ownership a will to exceed that number exists. Based on his last four seasons he’s not going to command top dollar, but he’s still not going to come cheap. Those fan fantasies about a low number with incentives? Not going to happen. Too many teams need starting pitching and they’ll gladly take a flyer on a name brand – particularly if it comes at a discount.

So, what price does each side place on loyalty? And just as important: will he sell tickets?

Well, at SSFGF we’re more than a little biased. Here’s the story:

Following his selection in 2006, he was assigned to Single-A San Jose because, well, that’s what you do with newbies. He wasn’t there long enough to spell “San Jose”, but his brief stint included a start in Bakersfield; this writer's current home.

As gates opened, you could hear a sound that was just … different. The visiting bullpen isn’t fan accessible, but the pop of ball in glove was pronounced, and there was also a certain zip that was visceral. You couldn’t see it, but it was there. There was something, or someone, special behind the grandstand. The popping stopped, and this skinny little runt comes walking out toward the playing surface. 

'This is him? The guy everyone is raving about? Come on!'

He was very relaxed, leaning up against the low chain-link fence and eyeballing the dump of a ballpark, built into the setting sun and coming apart like the last days of the George Bush Administration. There were maybe 15 people in the park, so it was easy to walk up and start a conversation.

No pretense. No “I’m the next big thing”. He was gracious, he was personable, he was everything you want your own kids to be. He chatted for about 10 minutes, signed a ball, politely excused himself, and then proceeded to dominate for five innings before leaving due to a team-mandated 60-pitch count.

He was equally as gracious two years later. By this point he was a bona fide star, gracing the cover of Sports Illustrated. He signed two copies of that magazine, smiled politely, and thanked me for coming to the park.

How can you not love this guy?

That’s the quandary facing the Giants’ front office. He would sell tickets. He’s still beloved. As much as Cepeda and Mays belonged to our elders, Prime Time Timmy Jim belongs to us. We’d argue that, with the Giants winning three titles in the past six years (and that window remains open), this is the Golden Age of Giants Baseball. It's the era of Buster, MadBum, and The Freak. They are the constants. And from a fans’ point of view, moving on without Lincecum just doesn’t feel right.

The Giants don’t have a poker player’s tell in these situations. They profess loyalty and, as such held on to Aubrey Huff, Pat Burrell and Ryan Vogelsong longer than practical. You could even argue the two-year/ $35 million deal Lincecum just finished falls into that category based on the numbers he put up. 

San Francisco has also played hardball, letting Edgar Renteria go literally days after he was named the World Series MVP. Russ Ortiz pitched them to a World Series and was shown the door. They ate money to let Aaron Rowand depart when he was no longer useful (was he ever?). There's no typical modus operandi here. 

So many variables figure in, and we don’t envy Bobby Evans and Brian Sabean in trying to figure this one out.  It’s about money, the role, comfort zone, etc. But we do have a take, and it only took about 1,100 words to get there.

If Timmy will accept a reasonable offer and looks good during the February workout, sign him. 

A starting pitcher in the Major Leagues would take the hill, at most 33 times in a 162-game season. Bumgarner, Cueto and Samardzija eat innings but that can’t last forever. Case in point: Matt Cain. He was a horse, until he wasn’t. Peavy is, well, Peavy -- six innings per start in between injuries. The Giants are, at some point, going to need another arm; one that can pitch from the pen or in a starting role. Timmy can: remember 2012?

Yusmeiro Pettit filled the swingman role ably, but he’s in Toronto. The closest thing the Giants have is George Kontos, and he’s really a two-to-three frame guy. The insurance policy would be Lincecum – because another season of Chris Heston and his one pitch (a sinker that often doesn't) just isn’t acceptable.

The Giants should make an offer. A healthy Lincecum, even given the last four years, is at least the equivalent of a Colby Lewis or Wade Miley; each making over $6 million. But Lincecum will also have to accept a different role, get that he’s not going to get the money even the underpaid Bumgarner does ($7 million), and realize the deal won’t be a long one. That's a hard ask for a former superstar, even if that role is with a team that has a legitimate shot at getting him a fourth ring.

The wildcard: someone comes in and offers the soon-to-be 32-year-old a multi-year deal for eight figures per. Then, as much as we might wish otherwise, he’s probably gone. But if he places significant value on being in front of a fan base that has had is back through good and bad, and he’s willing to wait for the chance to start that we all know is gonna come, Tim Lincecum should stay in orange and black.

Our suggested offer: two years, $12 million with a lucrative team option for year three. It's good money but team friendly, and it would certainly appeal to the fans who ultimately foot the bill.

C'mon guys. Make it happen.