Off days are good for arguments

Off day Tuesday, so we go deep diving for today's topic.

We, like most fans, absolutely love looking at preseason rankings. Most amusing are those that don’t rely on so-called “analysis” from sportswriters, bloggers, brothers-in-law, musings from random imaginary voices or spurts of wisdom from the Magic 8-Ball that’s been gathering dust in the corner since 1968.

What these prognostications provide is a chance to compare, and laugh, because everyone is looking at the same data and no one can seem to come to a consensus. Yes, everyone agrees the Cubs are going to be good and Phillies don’t have a chance – expect for maybe that guy at the Philadelphia Tribune who expects Mike Schmidt and Steve Carlton to magically re-appear.

Maybe they should. They’d be better than some of the guys currently employed, even in their present condition.

And then you get those evaluations from the scouts. These are the guys paid to observe, and they know, right? Uh, heed this from the script for Moneyball:

“You don't have the ability to look at a guy and ‘just know’ because you're a scout with special powers... Trust me, when I know, I know… and you don't.”

Let that sink in. The so-called experts can make an educated guess, but the “guess” is a far-greater part of the equation than the “educated” part ever will be. Baseball is that way. People are gonna get hurt, some will break out or underperform, and anyone can win on any given day – except for Marco Rubio. That guy can’t beat anybody.

So it's time to argue. Jeez, we LOVE to argue. The Earth is flat, the sky is green, Donald Trump's hair is real -- just give us a topic. 

We took some time to pick the bones of other’s work.  According to the scouts, the Giants aren’t all that but somehow might tap into that even-year magic. That’s right, the guys who supposedly are all about the on-field product believe in metaphysics. Thus dies any pretense of baseball as science, with the game instead made to sound like the result is dependent on how the dice carom of the rail.

Oh, they like the Johnny Cueto and Jeff Samardzija pick-ups, and they’re smitten with many of the regulars, but they still think the G-Men are well back of the guys down South. Yes, the Giants are a flawed team; show us a team that isn’t. 

Funny how the same was said in 2010, 2012, and 2014; all seasons ending in parades down Market Street. I can see picking away at a team’s warts, it’s great fun (read some of the previous posts for a preview of the fun to come), but it’s not Pollyanna-ish to think any team that has Madison Bumgarner, Buster Posey and Hunter Pence has as good a chance as any in the NL West.

As for the enemy:  “When you get past all the noise, the Dodgers are still the best team in this division, by a good amount.” Such was the consensus of the scouts. What?

I get it, they’re good. They’ve won the division three straight years and have the annoying ability to throw seemingly-unlimited wads of cash at their problems, but that pitching? Yikes. Clayton Kershaw is a stud, at least for the first 162. He’s proven vulnerable to patient teams, particularly in the postseason, but we’ll grant that he’s an unqualified ace.

What’s inexplicable is the insistence by those in the know that “they’ve done a terrific job of adding depth”. They’ve got a lot of it around the diamond thanks to newcomers like Corey Seager and vets like Chase “Demolition Man” Utley, but said depth in the outfield has meant nothing but trouble for years. And they’ve done nothing to help a pitching staff that lost Zack Greinke, who was right there with Kershaw and Bumgarner as the West’s top guns.

Scott Kazmir? Kenta Maeada? Please. Kazmir’s seasons look like he’s sipping some of that Jekyl /Hyde Kool-Aid, and Maeda is an unknown signed out of desperation despite admitted arm issues. Alex Wood is gonna be in the rotation. Alex Wood. Jeez, they thought   Hisashi Iwakuma was an upgrade over what they had. Sorry, but this team shouldn’t run away with anything.

Actually, the most intriguing team is Arizona. They made a lot of noise in the offseason but didn’t do much. They picked up a lot, but most of the deals were like the Shelby Miller acquisition: giving up far too much to get an overrated player. Greinke came on board and Paul Goldschmidt is a certified star, but they don’t appear to have much else. All of the plusses and minuses seem to have landed them right back where they came from.

Where we and the scouts agree is at the bottom. The Rockies have no starting pitching and would be better off spending the season planning that John Denver tribute. They’ll score runs, a mid-level Pony Leage team would put up tallies in that park, but the pitching staff will surrender more.  Really, the only reasons to buy Rockies tickets are to watch Nolan Arrenado play third, to see what a batted baseball does when you install a carburetor, and to slam down and CHUBurger on the rooftop deck. Yep, Rockies games should have been included in a certain Hollywood movie.

Scouts are giving the Padres a mulligan on last year. They tried to shoot the moon and hit Mars, now they have to retool. They signed James Shields and traded for Mat Kemp, Wil Myers and Craig Kimbrel before last season. Shields was pedestrian yet will be the 2016 Opening Day starter. Myers and Kemp showed why they got traded, and Kimbrel is gone.  Oh well, someone has to be cannon fodder for the rest.

Speculation, speculation, speculation. Can April 4 please get here?

Scouting evaluations courtesy Athlon Sports