Just How Deep are the Pockets?

The offseason is never about strikes and balls, safe or out. It’s all about hopes for the upcoming campaign, and a big part of that comes down to ….

Prices for players continue to rocket upward. Nolan Ryan was the first to $1 million in 1980. Bobby Bonilla crashed through the $5 million level two years later. Since then? Utility infielders are getting paid like Babe Ruth.

Just kidding. Babe Ruth only made $50K.

Does anyone remember how crazy we thought Barry Bonds’ 5 year/$90 million deal was? That was just in 2002, and it’s exactly what they’ll pay Jeff Samardzija to be a number-three starter. 

Owners lament the costs but they keep paying, with fans and TV mostly footing the bill. After all, they can spend whatever they want in this non-salary cap league. Or can they?

The Giants have often settled on perceived second-tier guys when bigger names were out there to be had. You can argue that maybe the money hasn’t been spent wisely at times, but the Giants have certainly not been afraid to spend, so claims they’re cheap are ridiculous. Not always flashy, but certainly not cheap.

In case you missed it, only four teams (Dodgers, Yankees, Red Sox, and Tigers) spent more last year. San Francisco shelled out $158.5 million and that number is going substantially higher. But how high can, or should, it go?

There’s no salary cap, except  there is. That’s the kind of circular thinking that got “The Brink” a second season on HBO. Baseball’s version of a cap is a luxury tax, basically telling teams that have more they can spend more, as long as they agree to spend even more than that.

It’s like someone handed your significant other a no-limit Visa and suggested they could spend as much as they wanted as long as they were willing to pay extra for the privilege.

MLB has a cap at $189 million and the Giants have been unwilling to exceed it, which would mean a $17 ½-percent tax on the excess. And they have good reason. Only the Dodgers and Yankees crossed the threshold last year and it guaranteed nothing but scorn and derision when they flamed out. The Dodgers haven’t won a title since Billy Ocean topped the charts, and the Pinstripes have scored once in the age of smartphones.  The Giants have had, shall we say, better return on investment.

That was then, this is now. Although AT&T has been sold out every night since 2010, it hasn’t been filled. Fans last year stayed away in favor of anything interesting: Warriors games, light shows on the Bay Bridge, dodgeball on ESPN 8, whatever. Empty chairs don’t buy garlic fries, Anchor Steam or bobble heads; and they don’t need $30 parking. Winning matters, the Giants know it, and they’ve put more skin in the game for 2016.

But how deep is the well?

Check this: the Giants today have 15 players inked for a glorious $158.6 million. Figuring worst-case scenarios on the arb numbers for Brandon Belt and George Knots and that number jumps to north of $167 million. Farmhand Daniel Carbon Elli gets another cool half mil and Nori Aoki’s buyout was $700K. There’s nearly $170 million and the Giants haven’t accounted for Matt Duffy, Joe Panic, Josh Osich, Hunter Strickland or Andrew Susac. All are under team control and should come at a reasonable cost but the last three are going to have to be bargains. If someone like Kyle Blanks or George Kottras, who have MLB experience, makes the squad, that $189 cliff is coming up fast.

The fan position is usually “Spend whatever, it’s not my money.” It’s entertainment. But it’s also a business, and bad deals can impact the entertainment value. We’ve seen dead money for Dave Roberts and Aaron Rowand, and ‘walking dead’ money for Barry Zito and Randy Winn. The same season Bonds cashed in, the Giants balked at paying Russ Ortiz, their best starter, $4 million per and he walked.

We were amazed by Bonds scored his ’02 deal. The 2016 Giants will have three guys (Matt Cain, Buster Posey, Hunter Pence) making base salaries higher than that.

Can the Giants spend more? Sure. Should they? That’s open to debate. This is hard. Gotta trust the guys who brought us three rings in five years.

Money doesn’t make the team: isn't that right Dodger fans?